Journal Articles
Title: “Too poor to migrate”: A narrative of labor migration and land fragmentation in Uganda
Journal: Land Use Policy (2024)
Authors: Kafle, K., Fatema, N., Kibriya, S., Wang, Y., Twongyirwe, R.
Abstract: Land fragmentation is a growing concern among smallholders in developing countries. As families grow and split off, per-capita land size declines significantly. Fragmented land holdings can have ramifications on agricultural production and labor migration. We investigate the relationship between land fragmentation and short-term labor migration using longitudinal household data from Uganda. We collate data from four periods of the Living Standard Measurement Study – Integrated Survey in Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) between 2013 and 2020. We use the two-way fixed effects estimator to estimate the effects of land fragmentation on migration. We find that land fragmentation is negatively correlated with labor migration. The relationship is more pronounced among rural, poor, and male-headed households compared to urban, rich, and female-headed households, respectively. We also conducted Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) with members of smallholder families in Southwest Uganda to qualitatively confirm the empirical findings. Results show that the negative relationship between land fragmentation and labor migration is mediated by the negative impacts of fragmented holdings on agricultural productivity. Public policies and programs that focus on land redistribution or consolidation may want to pay close attention to the consequences of fragmented holdings on agricultural production and smallholders’ migration behavior.
Title: Food price shocks and food supply in fragile states: a scoping review
Journal: International Food and Agribusiness Management Review (2024)
Authors: Wang, Y., Kibriya, S., Baffoe-Bonnie, A., Fatema, N., Kafle, K.
Abstract: Food price and supply shocks have detrimental effects on consumers worldwide, but they disproportionately affect vulnerable populations in fragile states. We conduct a scoping review of the literature on food price shocks and food supply chain issues in fragile states. We started with a robust set of 4476 peer-reviewed articles gathered from multiple repositories, including the Web of Science, PAIS International, and Econ Lit. We ended up with 17 studies for a full review following a series of exclusion criteria. Then, we systematically review the studies and synthesize evidence on the connection between food price shocks and the food supply chain. We find that food price shocks significantly weaken the food supply chain and household food security in fragile states across the world, though the mechanisms are context-specific. We find that local informal markets and locally led actions are critical in mitigating the adverse impacts of food price shocks and improving the resilience of the food supply chain in fragile states. We conclude that governments and development stakeholders in fragile states can improve food system resilience by providing targeted policy and investment support to informal markets and local actions, in addition to formal supply chain development.
Title: Givers of Great Dinners Know Few Enemies: The Impact of Food Sufficiency and Food Sharing on Low-intensity Household Conflict in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
Journal: Journal of Development Studies (2023)
Authors: Fatema, N., Kibriya, S.
Abstract: Our study establishes a linkage between household food sufficiency and food sharing behaviour with the reduction of low-intensity, micro level conflict using primary data from 1763 households of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. We develop a theoretical explanation of such behaviour using the seminal theories of dissatisfaction originating from food insecurity and the reciprocity of gifts in economic anthropology. We first examine if food sufficient households are less likely to engage in low-intensity conflict. Following, we investigate possible heterogeneous effects of food sufficiency, conditional on food sharing behaviour. Using propensity score matching, we find that food sufficiency reduces household conflict risk by an average of around 10 percentage points. Upon conditioning on food sharing behaviour, we find that conflict risk in the subpopulation of food sufficient households is 13.8 percentage points lower for households that share their food while the effects disappear for households that do not share their food. Our results hold through a rigorous set of robustness checks including doubly robust estimator, placebo regression, matching quality tests and Rosenbaum bounds for hidden bias. We conclude that food sufficiency reduces low-intensity conflict for households only in the presence of food sharing behaviour and offer explanations and policy prescriptions.
Title: Who is to blame? Youth crime and attribution of responsibility in urban Mexico
Journal: Journal of Criminal Justice (2023)
Authors: O García-Ponce, I Laterzo, V Bronsoler, E Lavore, S Kibriya
Abstract: Crime and violence threaten people’s safety and overall well-being around the globe. Youths represent a large fraction of the victims and perpetrators of violent crime. Understanding how youths make judgments about criminal acts and attribute blame has important implications, as these patterns are associated with perceptions of the acceptability of criminal behavior. Drawing on standard theories of blame attribution, we investigate the causal attributions of responsibility for criminal behavior among youths in urban Mexico, distinguishing between internal blame (attributed to the perpetrator) and external blame (attributed to the government and society). Using a novel, face-to-face survey experiment with nearly 3000 Mexicans aged 16–29 and seven focus groups, we examine how the perpetrator’s socioeconomic background, role within a gang, victim type, and crime severity influence assessments of blame attribution. Our results provide compelling evidence that the socioeconomic status of the perpetrator and the type of gang involvement significantly influence assessments of internal and external blame. We also find that blame allocation differs based on respondents’ characteristics and community environment. These findings shed light on how youths rationalize criminal behavior and have clear implications for policy-relevant research concerning crime and violence among youths.
Title: Food security and agricultural challenges in West-African rural communities: A machine learning analysis
Journal: International Journal of Food Properties (2022)
Authors: J Ahn, G Briers, M Baker, E Price, DC Sohoulande Djebou, R Strong,
Abstract: This article investigated household-level food security for Ghana, Liberia, and Senegal. Different agroclimatic, ecological, social, and farming conditions in West Africa were represented. Using data-driven Random Forest and Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) decision tree methodology, this study classified 644 Ghanaian, 323 Liberian, and 510 Senegalese households for comparison and interpretation on food security. The predictors growing Liberian and Senegalese decision trees imply community support, diverse selling channels outside villages, resolving the dispute over farmland, and increasing community-level investment for food availability and access demonstrate household food security. Predictor importance on food security for Ghana highlighted the role of independent producers and food suppliers toward stability. Household food security or insecurity was distinguished by location-specific and gender-led households in Liberia and Senegal. Practically, the results presented a need to step-up agricultural education and extension based on an empirical field survey and its interpretations. The results can add considerations to the role of farming households as independent and individual suppliers and consumers to long-standing dimensions of food security, i.e., food availability, access, and stability.
Title: The long-term effects of the slave trade on political violence in Sub-Saharan Africa
Journal: Journal of Comparative Economics (2021)
Authors: Y Zhang, ZP Xu, S Kibriya
Abstract: This study investigates the long-term legacy of the slave trade on contemporary violence in sub-Saharan Africa. Using a geo-coded disaggregated dataset and exploiting within-country variation in slave trade intensity, we document a robust positive relationship between slave exports and contemporary conflict; the slave trade has long-lasting impacts on ethnic conflict and riots in particular. We examine the mechanisms underlying this persistence and find that the slave trade has weakened national identity, leading to a higher risk of ethnic conflict, and has also undermined economic development, which partly explains the relationship between the slave trade and riots. Furthermore, using the individual attitudes from the Afrobarometer survey, we show that the impact of the slave trade on national identity is mostly attributed to the inherited beliefs and norms rather than the external environment.
Title: Can land title reduce low-intensity interhousehold conflict incidences and associated damages in eastern DRC?
Journal: World Development (2021)
Authors: N Fatema
Abstract: This study evaluates the effectiveness of land reform as a tool for mitigating low-intensity interhousehold conflict and protecting vulnerable populations in post-conflict settings. Using survey data from 1,582 farming households in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo, the analysis applies propensity score matching to assess whether land titling reduces both the likelihood and severity of conflict. Results indicate that land title lowers the probability of experiencing low-intensity conflict by 10–18 percentage points, but does not significantly reduce damages when conflict occurs. Findings suggest that while land reform may help prevent conflict, it is insufficient on its own to address its broader consequences. Complementary policies—such as improved governance and institutional strengthening—may be necessary to foster sustainable peace.
Title: Prevention is better than cure: Machine learning approach to conflict prediction in sub-Saharan Africa
Journal: Sustainability (2021)
Authors: M Musumba, N Fatema, S Kibriya
Abstract: This article offers policymakers and researchers pragmatic and sustainable approaches to identify and mitigate conflict threats by looking beyond p-values and plausible instruments. We argue that predicting conflict successfully depends on the choice of algorithms, which, if chosen accurately, can reduce economic and social instabilities caused by post-conflict reconstruction. After collating data with variables linked to conflict, we used a grid level dataset of 5928 observations spanning 48 countries across sub-Saharan Africa to predict civil conflict. The goals of the study were to assess the performance of supervised classification machine learning (ML) algorithms in comparison with logistic model, assess the implication of selecting a specific performance metric on policy initiatives, and evaluate the value of interpretability of the selected model. After comparing class imbalance resampling methods, the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) was employed to improve out-of-sample prediction for the trained model. The results indicate that if our selected performance metric is recall, gradient tree boosting is the best algorithm; however, if precision or F1 score is the selected metric, then the multilayer perceptron algorithm produces the best model.
Title: The impact of a safe learning environment in schools on students’ learning outcomes: evidence from Tanzania
Journal: Quality Assurance in Education(2021)
Authors: S Kibriya, G Jones
Abstract: This study examines the impact of perceived school safety on standardized learning outcomes among primary students in Tanzania. Using ordinary least squares and propensity score matching, the analysis controls for school and household characteristics to estimate the causal effect of safety on performance in English, reading fluency, and math. Findings reveal that unsafe school environments are significantly associated with lower scores in reading and math. While safety perceptions were reported by head teachers and may be conservative, the results underscore the importance of addressing school safety as a critical barrier to learning. Implications highlight the need for donors and policymakers to integrate safety considerations into education program design.
Title: Case studies of female-headed farms and households in Liberia: a comparative analysis of Grand Bassa, Lofa, and Nimba counties
Journal: The Journal of Agricultural Education and Extension(2020)
Authors: J Ahn, G Briers, S Kibriya, E Price
Abstract: This study investigates female-headed farming households in Grand Bassa, Lofa, and Nimba counties to assess patterns of smallholder agriculture and food insecurity in Liberia. Using explanatory sequential methods, qualitative insights from 44 farmers are validated through CHAID analysis of 112 observations. Findings reveal that households with more than three children and limited access to informal labor (Kuu) face heightened food insecurity due to low crop revenue and weak community support. While moderately food-secure households avoid these challenges, they encounter emerging issues in credit access and land conflict. The results underscore the need for gender-sensitive extension services and cyclical evaluation frameworks to support women-led farms and promote equitable agricultural development.
Title: Linkages between poverty and income inequality of urban–rural sector: A time series analysis of India’s urban-based aspirations from 1951 to 1994
Journal: Applied Economics Letters (2019)
Authors: S Kibriya, D Bessler, E Price
Abstract: This study examines the impact of urban and rural development on poverty and inequality in India before economic reform. The methodology comprises two dimensions. Modern time series methods are used to uncover the dynamic patterns of urban–rural poverty and income inequality. A machine-learning algorithm is used to determine the causal structure among the development indicators. Our results show that reductions in rural poverty appear to be a more effective in reducing both urban and rural poverty, although the costs of achieving these reductions have not been considered.
Title: The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan
Journal: Journal of Policy Modeling (2018)
Authors: Junyi Chen, Shahriar Kibriya, David Bessler, Edwin Price
Abstract: Though recent literature uncovers linkages between commodity prices and conflict, the causal direction of the relationship remains ambiguous. We attempted to contribute in this strand of research by studying the dynamic relationship of commodity prices and the onsets of two civil wars in Sudan. Applying Structure Vector Autoregression (SVAR) and Linear Non-Gaussian Acyclic Model (LiNGAM), we find that wheat price is a cause of conflict events in Sudan. We find no feedback from conflict to commodity prices.
Title: On forecasting conflict in the Sudan: 2009–2012
Journal: Journal of Forecasting (2016)
Authors: DA Bessler, S Kibriya, J Chen, E Price
Abstract: This paper considers univariate and multivariate models to forecast monthly conflict events in the Sudan over the out-of-sample period 2009–2012. The models used to generate these forecasts were based on a specification from a machine learning algorithm fit to 2000–2008 monthly data. The model that includes previous month’s wheat price performs better than a similar model which does not include past wheat prices (the univariate model). Both models did not perform well in forecasting conflict in a neighborhood of the 2012 ‘Heglig crisis’”
